Category: Coronavirus

Possible answer: When new cases and the Percent Test Positivity Rate progressively increase for 12 days or more. 

I do not have much more to add to my comments of November 13 but will allow the data to speak for itself.  Yesterday’s announced 2195 new cases is the highest daily count since October 14.  Yesterday’s case count was higher than any of the previous 4 Wednesdays.  Given that this week’s 3 remaining weekdays through Saturday comprise those with historically higher counts, it can be projected that the total number of new cases this week will exceed those of the previous three or even four weeks.  Since the number of daily tests has been fairly stable, increased testing does not explain the increase in case numbers but the progressively increasing Test Positivity Rate helps.  Hospital utilization is creeping up and along with ICU and ventilator utilization and deaths will eventually follow wherever new cases go.  Elsewhere in the world and in some other US states, that place is another winter surge.

I am personally being very careful to follow good public health measures including getting a booster vaccination, wearing a mask indoors in public, and limiting my exposure to groups. I recommend the same to everyone else.

The full set of updated data visualizations can be viewed on KHPI’s interactive Tableau Public Website.

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Continue reading “When Is a Covid-19 Epidemic Plateau Not One?”

Since mid-October there were suggestions, and then evidence, that the rapid decline in new cases of Covid-19 in Kentucky that began in September was beginning to slow towards a potential “plateau” in the shape of the epidemic curve. By early November, there were suggestions that Kentucky’s epidemic was actually getting worse. As of yesterday (Friday), the number of new cases reported supports that an expansion is real– at least in the short term. Kentucky is not alone among the states or nations in which epidemic surges are occurring. We in the Commonhealth are not immune.

Increase in Weekly Total Cases.
KHPI defines a week as the days from Sunday to Saturday and new cases as the daily increment in total cases. Last week’s total case-counts include those of Sunday, Monday, and a federal holiday– days for which counts have been historically lower due to issues of data collection. Yesterday’s final count for the week-ending Saturday, November 13 will not be available until next Monday evening. Even without Saturday’s count, the total number of new cases for the first 6 days of last week is only 253 fewer than the previous week’s. There is no doubt that with the addition of today’s cases, the total last week will exceed that of the previous week by several hundred. A reversal in the decline of weekly case counts has not occurred for the previous 10 weeks since its peak of the fall surge.

Continue reading “By the Numbers, Kentucky’s Covid-19 Epidemic Is Expanding Again.”

[Addendum added November 6, 2021:  
Yesterday’s (Friday) reported Kentucky Covid-19 data was the last such available until Monday evening. There were 1,421 new cases, 53 new deaths, and 726 individuals currently in the hospital.  Kentucky’s 7-Day calculated Test Positivity Rate increased to 5.19%. On Friday, 30% of all new reported cases were in people 18 years old or younger.  The current hospital census continues to decrease.  These new numbers do not change the tentative conclusions offered in the article below. While the number of new cases was less than for recent Fridays, is seems more certain that the rate of decrease is declining.  While there may be other reasons for this, the increase in Test Positivity Rate offers a potential less benign explanation! KHPI’s Tableau Public website has been updated.]

As of Thursday evening, the number of new cases of Covid-19 in Kentucky continues to decline but at a lower velocity.  Wednesday’s count of 1614 new cases was only 59 fewer than the previous Wednesday’s. The seven-day average of new cases was 1191, but a steady-state above 1000 per day may approaching. The reported KY test positivity rate is no longer falling as it was.  According to other reports, this is a trend that is occurring nationally.

Deaths are now beginning to decline predictably with a one-month delay following the peak of new cases during the first half of September.  The current 7-day average of reported deaths is 24 per day.

Continue reading “Rapid Fall in Covid-19 Cases In Kentucky May Be Slowing Down.”

We still need to keep up the good work!

As of Wednesday, October 20, the number of new cases of Covid-19 and the test positivity rate continue to fall sharply. The 7-Day New Case number was 1590 and the 7-Day Test Positivity Rate 6.83. Both of these are about where we were last February when we were halfway down from winter’s peaks, but still considerably above last summer’s nadirs of 142 cases and 1.79 percent of tests.

Hospital bed and ICU utilization (which track each other closely) are also clearly easing but not to the same extent as new cases. For example, ICU bed occupancy this week is nearly as high as the peaks of December and January. (One could speculate that this may be connected to the enhanced virulence of the Delta variant or perhaps even better reporting.) If we continue to see fewer new cases at the same rate since September 8, we could be below 500 daily by mid-November.

Continue reading “Covid-19 Epidemic In Kentucky Decidedly Abating But Still A Threat.”