Omicron Variant Still Breaking Daily Records in Kentucky.

How can we tell if we are winning?

Omicron variant is still expanding in Kentucky.
I have put off reporting on whether we have turned the corner with respect to the current overwhelming Omicron spike of Covid-19 cases that is once again disrupting our social and economic lives in Kentucky. Epidemic-related case, death, testing, and hospital numbers have been exhibiting more than their usual weekday volatility since the Omicron flair began in December, amplified by reporting delays related to three long holiday weekends and epic natural disasters. The experience with Omicron in other countries and a few American states that hosted the strain early enabled, an optimistic view that Omicron would come and go as “icepick” spike in the epidemic curve rather than the prolonged mountainous bulges that characterized the summer surges of the Alpha and Delta strains of 2020-21. The record high numbers of new cases reported yesterday make it clear that we have not yet felt the worst of Omicron’s epidemic expansion.

Test Positivity Rate and 7-Day Avg. As of 1/21/22. KHPI
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Coronavirus Omicron is Running Wild in Kentucky.

How can we tell where it is headed?

Today is Sunday January 9. The last iteration of Kentucky’s Covid-19 epidemic data was issued to the public, (and presumably the CDC) last Friday. The next set of data will not be available to the public until tomorrow evening. That leaves a gap of three full day’s history of epidemic expansion that is already the fastest of the previous 670 days. [Although we can expect that the weekend reporting days of Sunday and Monday may be low, those days can be compared to pervious weekend days.] Daily detected new cases and the proportion of viral tests that are positive have never been higher in Kentucky by wide margins and are rising with exponential fury in a straight line since December 27. One of two major factors behind the present COVID explosion is the new Omicron variant that has been sweeping through the rest of the world and likely been in Kentucky since December. Omicron is by far the most is the most transmissible COVID variant yet to hit America. It is likened in virulence to measles which up to now has been considered one of our most infectious diseases. The second expansion driver was a holiday season in which we believed and may have been told it was safer to travel and visit with others– and we did! However, I believe we carried that permissiveness too far. For example, today’s Courier-Journal contained some holiday photos including a fun-looking party with dancing and consuming in which no mask was in sight, and UofL basketball game with all naked faces in the audience. The stage was set, and the virus was willing and more than able (as if we could ascribe to a virus with purpose).

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Coronavirus Starts New Year With a Bang and Record Highs.

Overview.
Kentucky is emerging from the current major holidays of November and December in what is the third major surge of Covid-19 since our first case 653 days ago on March 6, 2020. We responded to an opening mini-wave that stabilized in early May 2020 with a moving 7-Day average of around 205 daily reported cases. We were plenty worried at that time and pulled out all the traditional non-pharmaceutical remedies we had available. That seemed to work even though there was much resistance to the disruption of our social order.

Things got a little better for a while, but the rolling average never dropped below 126. The Fourth of July holiday and entry to the summer season began a gradual but progressive rise in cases that never really ended. Cases (and deaths) exploded beginning in early October 2020 from an average of 760 per day, to twin peaks of 3412 and on December 5, 2020 and January 12, 2021 respectively. This initial major epidemic surge was caused by the original Alpha variants. Vaccines became available to high-risk individuals and by mid-January 2021 to adults older than 65. For this and other reasons, daily case numbers began to slowly decrease to a daily average of 146 by the end of June 2021. We thought we had won and many, including myself, moved back closer to a more “normal” lifestyle. However, Covid-19 had not disappeared elsewhere in the world and if it is anywhere, it is a risk everywhere!

Cases and deaths since beginning of Kentucky epidemic.
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Kentucky’s Covid-19 Epidemic Expanded Relentlessly During Past Two Months.

This week we will reach a milestone of 800,000 reported new cases of Covid-19 in Kentucky. All public health experts agree that this is a substantial undercount. Despite that there were 5 days of undercounting new cases over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and that a rolling average is by definition always hostage to its earliest days, the 7-Day average of new reported KY cases has been rising in an unrelenting fashion since November 5th.

However, our epidemic expansion began weeks before that. For each given weekday (i.e. a Wednesday) the most recent daily count for that day of the week has been higher than the that of the previous 7 to 9 weeks. Last week’s total new case count exceeded by far that of the previous 8 weeks reaching 52% of the highest weekly count of any week during the 628 days since Covid-19 was recognized in Kentucky. The most recent upward trajectory of new each new daily case count has been steep.

Other indicators of epidemic expansion are consistent with this increase in daily new case counts. The number of new cases tracks very closely with the Covid Test Positivity Rate (TPR) whether calculated daily, or using the KY Department of Public Health’s indicator of the 7-Day average of percent of tests reported electronically that are positive. The current “official” positivity rate has been above 9% for the past few days. (The maximum reported rate of 14.2% occurred as recently as last September 8th.) The TPR has been rising sharply. The 7-Day new case rate is surging past that of the 14-Day rate also indicating rapid expansion. The current gap between the two of 463 cases is the highest so far in the course of Kentucky’s epidemic. Cases plotted semi-logarithmically reveal our current expansion of both cases and the TPR to be formally exponential, albeit at a doubling rate of around 4 weeks.

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