New Covid-19 Cases in KY Falling Sharply. Waiting For Deaths to Fall as Well.

New reported cases of Covid-19 are falling sharply after the record numbers related to the December and New Year holidays. It is both logical and reasonable to assume that adherence of public health measures had predictable effects on the recovery. As expected, reported deaths lag cases by at least 2 to 3 weeks for both medical and administrative reasons. Should deaths not begin to fall more sharply we will need to explore possible reasons why. The following graphic compares the 7-Day averages of new cases and deaths as of February 4.

7-Day averages of reported daily new Covid-19 cases and deaths in Kentucky as of 2-4-21.

This data visualization can be explored on the KHPI Tableau Public website along with the full portfolio of updated interactive data displays. Without averaging daily reports over either 7- or 14 days it is not possible to reliably discern short term trends.

Additional commentary will be added after Saturday’s report.

Peter Hasselbacher, MD
Kentucky Health Policy Institute
4 February 2021

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