Early Indicators That The Omicron Variant Might Be Receding In Kentucky

With two days remaining in the full week of data that averages out day-to-day volatility, there are signs that this surge in our epidemic may be turning the corner. The metrics to watch for new cases outlined in my previous article appear to be stabilizing or even reversing. Nonetheless, new cases remain high. Yesterday’s announced new cases of 12,756 is within the same range as the past two weeks. The 7-Day Average of new cases remains above 12,000 but is no longer rising as dramatically as before. The 7-Day New Case Average is still higher than the 14-Day one. Both are still rising, but the gap between them has been decreasing. The doubling time is getting longer. Case counts on individual weekdays (i.e., a Thursday) are no longer predictably higher than previous ones. Yesterday’s Thursday was actually lower than the previous Thursday. Wednesdays have had the highest counts in most weeks, but for the last two weeks they were similar. Unless things change a lot in the next two days, this past week will have had fewer new cases than the last. The majority of new cases are identified through testing. For the last 8 days, the Test Positivity Rate as calculated by the KY Department of Public heath has been progressively decreasing– albeit slowly. This epidemic has had many unexpected twists and turns, but perhaps crossing our fingers and going the right things is making a difference again– even if only sooner than otherwise would have happened in the hands-off mode.

7-Day Avg. New Cases and Test Positivity Rates as of 2-27-22. KHPI.

Two of the major sequelae of viral infection– hospital care and death– are predictably delayed. Current hospital census is still rising and is as high as it was for the Delta variant. Intensive care utilization has been rising also, but not to the same degree as for Delta. ICU and ventilator use are currently tracking together. The need for ventilator support is associated with a high mortality, and we should not be surprised if the number of reported deaths will increase. The current 7-Day average of deaths of 39 is the highest of the past 12 days.

You can view data updated through January 27 on KHPI’s Tableau Public Website. I will update it with Friday’s numbers and prepare a fuller illustrated report when week-ending Saturday’s data are available. For now, cross your fingers on both hands and keep doing your part to break us out of this cycle (and to prepare for Omicron Jr).

Peter Hasselbcher, MD
Emeritus Professor of Medicine, UofL
January 28, 2022

Omicron Variant Still Breaking Daily Records in Kentucky.

How can we tell if we are winning?

Omicron variant is still expanding in Kentucky.
I have put off reporting on whether we have turned the corner with respect to the current overwhelming Omicron spike of Covid-19 cases that is once again disrupting our social and economic lives in Kentucky. Epidemic-related case, death, testing, and hospital numbers have been exhibiting more than their usual weekday volatility since the Omicron flair began in December, amplified by reporting delays related to three long holiday weekends and epic natural disasters. The experience with Omicron in other countries and a few American states that hosted the strain early enabled, an optimistic view that Omicron would come and go as “icepick” spike in the epidemic curve rather than the prolonged mountainous bulges that characterized the summer surges of the Alpha and Delta strains of 2020-21. The record high numbers of new cases reported yesterday make it clear that we have not yet felt the worst of Omicron’s epidemic expansion.

Test Positivity Rate and 7-Day Avg. As of 1/21/22. KHPI
Continue reading “Omicron Variant Still Breaking Daily Records in Kentucky.”

Coronavirus Omicron is Running Wild in Kentucky.

How can we tell where it is headed?

Today is Sunday January 9. The last iteration of Kentucky’s Covid-19 epidemic data was issued to the public, (and presumably the CDC) last Friday. The next set of data will not be available to the public until tomorrow evening. That leaves a gap of three full day’s history of epidemic expansion that is already the fastest of the previous 670 days. [Although we can expect that the weekend reporting days of Sunday and Monday may be low, those days can be compared to pervious weekend days.] Daily detected new cases and the proportion of viral tests that are positive have never been higher in Kentucky by wide margins and are rising with exponential fury in a straight line since December 27. One of two major factors behind the present COVID explosion is the new Omicron variant that has been sweeping through the rest of the world and likely been in Kentucky since December. Omicron is by far the most is the most transmissible COVID variant yet to hit America. It is likened in virulence to measles which up to now has been considered one of our most infectious diseases. The second expansion driver was a holiday season in which we believed and may have been told it was safer to travel and visit with others– and we did! However, I believe we carried that permissiveness too far. For example, today’s Courier-Journal contained some holiday photos including a fun-looking party with dancing and consuming in which no mask was in sight, and UofL basketball game with all naked faces in the audience. The stage was set, and the virus was willing and more than able (as if we could ascribe to a virus with purpose).

Continue reading “Coronavirus Omicron is Running Wild in Kentucky.”

Coronavirus Starts New Year With a Bang and Record Highs.

Overview.
Kentucky is emerging from the current major holidays of November and December in what is the third major surge of Covid-19 since our first case 653 days ago on March 6, 2020. We responded to an opening mini-wave that stabilized in early May 2020 with a moving 7-Day average of around 205 daily reported cases. We were plenty worried at that time and pulled out all the traditional non-pharmaceutical remedies we had available. That seemed to work even though there was much resistance to the disruption of our social order.

Things got a little better for a while, but the rolling average never dropped below 126. The Fourth of July holiday and entry to the summer season began a gradual but progressive rise in cases that never really ended. Cases (and deaths) exploded beginning in early October 2020 from an average of 760 per day, to twin peaks of 3412 and on December 5, 2020 and January 12, 2021 respectively. This initial major epidemic surge was caused by the original Alpha variants. Vaccines became available to high-risk individuals and by mid-January 2021 to adults older than 65. For this and other reasons, daily case numbers began to slowly decrease to a daily average of 146 by the end of June 2021. We thought we had won and many, including myself, moved back closer to a more “normal” lifestyle. However, Covid-19 had not disappeared elsewhere in the world and if it is anywhere, it is a risk everywhere!

Cases and deaths since beginning of Kentucky epidemic.
Continue reading “Coronavirus Starts New Year With a Bang and Record Highs.”