With two days remaining in the full week of data that averages out day-to-day volatility, there are signs that this surge in our epidemic may be turning the corner. The metrics to watch for new cases outlined in my previous article appear to be stabilizing or even reversing. Nonetheless, new cases remain high. Yesterday’s announced new cases of 12,756 is within the same range as the past two weeks. The 7-Day Average of new cases remains above 12,000 but is no longer rising as dramatically as before. The 7-Day New Case Average is still higher than the 14-Day one. Both are still rising, but the gap between them has been decreasing. The doubling time is getting longer. Case counts on individual weekdays (i.e., a Thursday) are no longer predictably higher than previous ones. Yesterday’s Thursday was actually lower than the previous Thursday. Wednesdays have had the highest counts in most weeks, but for the last two weeks they were similar. Unless things change a lot in the next two days, this past week will have had fewer new cases than the last. The majority of new cases are identified through testing. For the last 8 days, the Test Positivity Rate as calculated by the KY Department of Public heath has been progressively decreasing– albeit slowly. This epidemic has had many unexpected twists and turns, but perhaps crossing our fingers and going the right things is making a difference again– even if only sooner than otherwise would have happened in the hands-off mode.
Two of the major sequelae of viral infection– hospital care and death– are predictably delayed. Current hospital census is still rising and is as high as it was for the Delta variant. Intensive care utilization has been rising also, but not to the same degree as for Delta. ICU and ventilator use are currently tracking together. The need for ventilator support is associated with a high mortality, and we should not be surprised if the number of reported deaths will increase. The current 7-Day average of deaths of 39 is the highest of the past 12 days.
You can view data updated through January 27 on KHPI’s Tableau Public Website. I will update it with Friday’s numbers and prepare a fuller illustrated report when week-ending Saturday’s data are available. For now, cross your fingers on both hands and keep doing your part to break us out of this cycle (and to prepare for Omicron Jr).
Peter Hasselbcher, MD
Emeritus Professor of Medicine, UofL
January 28, 2022
