Is the Covid-19 Epidemic Still Expanding in Kentucky and Its Neighborhood?

Kentucky and many other states are backing away from public health measures of varying strictness that were adopted in March or April during the exponential expansion phase of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. It is appropriate and even necessary to begin this process, but it needs to be done with an acceptable degree of safety. There is no doubt that measures taken so far have at least “bent” the curve, slowing down if not ultimately decreasing the mortality and morbidity of this overtly infectious disease. I believe Kentucky has benefited greatly from our collective efforts despite opposition on several fronts including armed protest. The expectation and promise is that we and the nation will be able to detect “surges” of the epidemic in a timely way and to be able to reinstate restrictions on public interactions that have proven effective. I wish I could be more confident that we can be successful in either instance.

It‘s not over yet.
In the nation as a whole, albeit to a lesser degree in Kentucky, both the number of aggregate cases and deaths continue to increase. Our ability both as a nation and Commonwealth to test for, identify, and report the presence of Covid-19 in the community and to trace exposed persons is still far behind what is needed to detect and respond to localized outbreaks before they show up two or three weeks later as increases in hospitalizations and deaths. It is from such localized hotspots that epidemic expansion can be continuously fueled. More troublesome is a background of resistance from individuals and groups which, for a variety of ideological, religious, political, or business reasons, hold the nation hostage by refusing to follow evidence-based public health initiatives that are effective only when done collectively. Unfortunately, we face these problems with a weakened and fragmented public health system and an inequitably distributed healthcare system overall.

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