Yesterday’s (Wednesday) evening Covid-19 update from Frankfort told of 518 new cases but from which there were an unusually high number of 38 removed as duplicates or perhaps for other reasons. KHPI reports new cases as the day-to-day difference in total cases which yields a smaller number of 480 additional new cases. This number, while higher than any new case number earlier than July 7, is less than the several 500s, 646, or 977 counts of the previous 7 days. The rise in the 7-Day average to a new high of 552 was at least temporarily blunted– but it has not begun to fall either. Time will tell us in which direction our case trend is headed. It has only been since July 9 that mandatory mask use was required in Kentucky, but its implementation was challenged in the courts and compliance has been spotty in any event. I suspect it is too early to expect a major effect on spread at this early time. End-of-week Fridays and Saturdays have historically given us higher counts in the past. The monstrously high count of 977 was reported just last Sunday. Three reporting days of the week remain just ahead of us.
[Addendum 7-24-20: Yesterday evening’s data report confirmed ongoing rapid expansion of the epidemic. KHPI noted 607 additions to total cases and 7 new deaths. With two days to go in this calendar week, the number of new cases is already nearly as many as last week. Based on the current rate of increase of the 7-Day average, new cases are doubling by at least every 12-13 days. Hospital and ICU utilization continue to trend upwards. In all this, Kentucky is mirroring the nation overall. We are all in trouble! The full panel of visualizations on-line have been updated.]
[Addendum 7-24 4:30 pm: todays new case reports adds 744 to the total. This is bad news. Even without Saturday’s report tomorrow, the number of new cases has jumped well ahead of last weeks total. At this rate, unless something changes or happens, we will be at 1000 cases per day by August 3d. Deaths in today’s report added 7 new ones. I will elaborate on the weeks finding s tomorrow evening. I place an updated graphic of 7-Day New Cases at the end of this article.]Continue reading “What if Kentucky’s New Covid-19 Cases Increase at the Current Exponential Rate?”