New Kentucky Cases of Covd-19 Doubling Every Three Weeks and Accelerating.

On track to 5000 new cases per day by December 13.  It’s even worse across the nation!

Kentucky is in the 260th day, 37th week, and 9th month of its Covid-19 plague. Hospitals here and nationally are getting slammed with more cases and fewer available clinical staff. With rates of new cases and deaths climbing more rapidly, Kentucky and many (but not all) states are instituting more stringent public health orders and recommendations. New vaccines with initially proven effectiveness but unknown long-term safety are coming before the FDA. These reveal some light at the end of the Covid tunnel. However, vaccines will not be widely available for much if not all of next year.  Something had to be done to stall for more time.  Kentucky’s new emergency orders and suggestions took effect last Friday evening, November 20.   Enforcement is limited and the effect on cases will take some time to be seen. However, the number of new cases daily was accelerating too rapidly to ignore. 

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Riders On The Covid Storm.

Into this world we’re thrown, like a dog without a bone.
The Doors, 1971

I never appreciated nor fully understood the lyrics of this iconic rock anthem.  In today’s world, a different context made the words jump unbidden into my head. There is no need for me to launch into a lengthly end-of-week-review today.  Everyone should already know that what is happening in Kentucky and in the nation broadly is nothing short of the disaster that defines pandemics plagues. Here and nationally new records are being set daily. I invite the reader to visit KHPI’s Public Tableau website to interactively explore an updated portfolio of data visualizations of Kentucky’s numbers.

In brief, virtually every Covid metric that KHPI has been following set a new record last week. Daily new cases now number greater than 3000.  Weekly new cases jumped 32% from 12,442 to 16,476 for the week ending Saturday, Nov 14.  The 7-Day rolling average of new cases is surging towards a straight-up direction faster than the 14-Day average indicating a rapidly expanding epidemic.  Hospital and ICU utilization by Covid-19 patients is also setting new records records daily with hospitals making no attempt to hide their concerns about limited resources of space, inventory, or staff.  The number of weekly Covid-19 deaths set a new record at 97, increasing from an average in the 80s for the preceding three weeks.  It is inevitable, that despite better understanding of the disease and its treatment, the number of Covid-19 deaths will also accelerate.  The number of total tests reported [not including many tests performed but not reported] remains more or less constant since early September at around 150,000 per day.

Below is a single graphic that encapsulates the dire situation we are facing.  The people of Kentucky and their leaders, regardless of their political or social persuasions, are going to have to take responsibility for and to respond to this darkening storm.

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Kentucky and the Nation’s Covid-19 Epidemics on the Same Bad Trajectories.

Sadly, and disappointedly, there has been no change in the trajectory of Kentucky’s Coronavirus epidemic since last week’s summary report.  The number of new cases continues to set new records daily or almost every other day, now doubling every 4 to 5 weeks.  Weekly cases have been relentlessly setting new records since early September.  Fourteen-day rolling averages since early September closely follow a trajectory that could generate some 5000 new cases per day by the end of December and 10,000 by the end of next January if the trend continues unabated. It is no consolation that the Country as a whole is doing even worse. Surely it cannot go on like this– it must not!

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New Cases Covid-19 Soaring in Kentucky at Rate Doubling Every 4 Weeks.

If nothing changes could hit 5000 new cases per day by the end of December based on trend since October 1.

It may not make too much sense to update the Kentucky Covid-19 epidemic in midweek because it takes the remainder of the week for statewide reporting to catch up from the slow or absent reporting of Sundays and Mondays. I make an exception today even before Wednesday’s reporting because things have been so bad here, nationwide, and in most other countries that have the infrastructure necessary to count cases at all.  I am also moved by considerations that our hospital and their preexisting ICU beds are now truly threatened by sequential record-breaking days since reliable accounting began in May.

Brief Review with Charts: 

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