Reported deaths remain high– predictably so?
With Saturday’s report not yet in, it is clear that daily reported new cases of Covid-19 disease continue to fall sharply. The 14-Day average on Feb 12th of 1989 is lower than any other day since Nov. 13th. The 7-Day Test Positivity rate reported by Frankfort of 6.95 is also falling rapidly and is the lowest since Nov 5th. (See graphic below.) Baring an unexpected high number of new cases tonight, last week will be the 5th week in a row in which cases have fallen progressively. Reflecting the decrease in new cases, hospital and ICU utilization is going down modestly, but hospital utilization remains very irregularly reported day-to-day. All of this is truly good news. However, at the rate of new-case decline since the beginning of 2021, we will not drop below 4-digit daily numbers until the beginning of April. Since what we are doing now in terms of prevention is clearly working, and if we do not slack off as a community, we should be able to do better. However, that will not happen until the reciprocal public health obligations of the individual and their community is recognized and reinforced.
[Note that since by definition all confirmed cases of Covid-19 have a positive test, and reciprocally that having a positive test defines a case, we expect these two numbers to track each other very closely. Recall also that the number of new cases added to the state’s aggregate total of cases have duplicate individuals removed. I do not know if this is the case for the viral RNA tests that the state uses to calculate its Test Positivity Rate. In any event, it is not clear to me that the Positivity Rate tells us any more about the prevalence of disease in the community than raw case counts. Neither represents a random survey of the community. It is generally accepted that large numbers of individuals contract Covid-19 but are not counted because they were asymptomatic, lacked access to a healthcare system, or for any other reason were never tested.]
Continue reading “Kentucky Covid-19 Cases Continue to Plummet But Still High.”